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My take on tomorrow’s arbitration deadline

November 22, 2010

Tomorrow is the deadline for teams to offer Free Agents salary arbitration.  The Twins have two Type A free agents and four Type B free agents.  The six free agents that qualify are Matt Guerrier (Type TA), Carl Pavano (Type A), Jesse Crain (Type B), Brian Fuentes (Type B), Orlando Hudson (Type B), Jon Rauch (Type B).  Below is my take on what the Twins should do.

Matt Guerrier.  This is a tricky one, offering him arbitration would be a no brainer you would think to receive the draft picks in return if he signs with another club.  The only problem is that there is a strong chance that Guerrier would accept the arbitration and could fetch in the neighborhood of $6 million-$7 million on a one year deal.  As everyone knows, the Twins are somewhat short on spending this money and do they really want to risk being forced to commit that much to one reliever?

Carl Pavano.  This I feel is a for sure offer.  If Pavano walks (which it is sounding like he will) then the Twins will receive a first round draft pick as compensation.  There is a very small chance that Pavano would accept, if he does then the Twins will get him back on a one year deal for around the same salary as 2010.

Jesse Crain.  I would also offer arbitration to Crain.  Although he would not bring a first round pick if he left, it would bring in a sandwich pick for the Twins.  Also I feel out of all the bullpen members on the market this year for the Twins that Crain is the number one choice to work out a multi-year deal with.  Crain showed last year after being recalled that he can be one of the best relievers in baseball.

Brian Fuentes.  I would not offer arbitration to Fuentes as I am worried there would be a chance he could accept.  Fuentes has said he wants a multi-year deal and a chance to be a teams closer, but there is the possibility that he will not be presented with the chance at either of those.  Through arbitration, Fuentes could fetch somewhere around $9 million.  No thank you.  That money can be better spent somewhere else.

Orlando Hudson.  It sounds like it’s almost a certainty that Hudson will not be back with the Twins this year.  The team (and I) believe that Alexi Casilla is ready to take over the full-time job at 2B (for the second time).  If Casilla doesn’t work out it seems as though the team has some confidence in Luke Hughes or Trevor Plouffe to fill in.

Jon Rauch.  I don’t think it could hurt to offer Rauch arbitration.  He does not have eye poping stats that would warrant a signification bump in salary at this point in his career.  Allthough the saves he got last year may bump it up a little bit, I don’t think it would hurt the Twins to offer him and see if they can bring him back on a one or two-year deal.

That is my quick take on the situation.  Please feel free to debate me and comment!


2 Comments leave one →
  1. Ryan permalink
    November 22, 2010 8:24 pm

    Cool stuff jake, I’m not much into the Twins myself but I like the blog, nice work.

  2. November 22, 2010 8:54 pm

    Thanks. As you know I could talk Twins 24/7 so this gives me an opportunity to. The goal is to get a few people commenting on here and get some discussion going. I am assuming it will be a little easier once the season gets going but feel free to spread the word about it. Just want it to be a place that everyone can talk Twins Baseball.

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